000			03774nam a22004333i 4500
001			EBC5579430
003			MiAaPQ
005			20240122001129.0
006			m o d |
007			cr cnu||||||||
008			231124s2018 xx o ||||0 eng d
020			_a9783319749532 _q(electronic bk.)
020			_z9783319749525
035			_a(MiAaPQ)EBC5579430
035			_a(Au-PeEL)EBL5579430
035			_a(OCoLC)1066194561
040			_aMiAaPQ _beng _erda _epn _cMiAaPQ _dMiAaPQ
050		4	_aHB131-147
100	1		_aHalkjelsvik, Torleif.
245	1	0	_aTime Predictions : _bUnderstanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life.
250			_a1st ed.
264		1	_aCham : _bSpringer International Publishing AG, _c2018.
264		4	_c�2018.
300			_a1 online resource (117 pages)
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia
338			_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier
490	1		_aSimula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series ; _vv.5
505	0		_aIntro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 A Prediction Success -- 1.2 Prediction Disasters -- References -- 2 How We Predict Time Usage -- 2.1 Mental Time Travel -- 2.2 How Did You Make that Prediction? -- 2.3 Time Predictions Are Everywhere -- 2.4 How Good Are We at Predicting Time? -- References -- 3 Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future -- 3.1 Precisely Wrong or Roughly Right? -- 3.2 Communication of Time Predictions -- 3.3 Probability-Based Time Predictions -- 3.4 Right-Skewed Time Distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to Add: 2 + 2 Is Usually More Than 4 -- 3.6 How to Predict the Mean Time Usage -- 3.7 How Time Predictions Affect Performance -- References -- 4 Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.1 Optimism, Overoptimism, and Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.2 The Benefits of Overoptimism -- 4.3 The Desire to Control Time -- 4.4 Motivation to Make Accurate Time Usage Predictions -- 4.5 Selection Bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who Makes the Most Realistic Time Predictions? -- References -- 5 Time Prediction Biases -- 5.1 The Team Scaling Fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence Effects -- 5.4 Format Effects -- 5.5 The Magnitude Effect -- 5.6 Length of Task Description -- 5.7 The Time Unit Effect -- References -- 6 Uncertainty of Time Predictions -- 6.1 Why Are We Overconfident? -- 6.2 What Can We Do to Avoid Overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The Use of Alternative Interval Prediction Formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from Accuracy Feedback -- References -- 7 Time Prediction Methods and Principles -- 7.1 Unpacking and Decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative Predictions -- 7.4 Time Prediction Models -- 7.5 Consider Alternative Futures -- 7.6 Combinations of Time Predictions -- 7.7 Let Other People Make the Prediction? -- 7.8 Removing Irrelevant and Misleading Information.
505	8		_a7.9 From Fibonacci to T-Shirt Sizes: Time Predictions Using Alternative Scales -- References -- 8 Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- References -- 9 How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.
588			_aDescription based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
590			_aElectronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2023. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
655		4	_aElectronic books.
700	1		_aJ�rgensen, Magne.
776	0	8	_iPrint version: _aHalkjelsvik, Torleif _tTime Predictions _dCham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2018 _z9783319749525
797	2		_aProQuest (Firm)
830		0	_aSimula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series
856	4	0	_uhttps://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/bacm-ebooks/detail.action?docID=5579430 _zClick to View
999			_c304913 _d304913