Russia-China Relations : Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals?

Russia-China Relations -- Global Power Shift -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Editors and Contributors -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Introduction: Analyzing the Shifts in Sino-Russian Strategic Cooperation Since 2014 -- 1 Changing Perceptions of Sino-Russian Cooperation over the Years -- 2 The Structure and Aims of This Volume -- References -- Part I: Mutual Perceptions and Narratives -- Russia�s Strategic Outlook and Policies: What Role for China? -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Russia�s Global Strategic Outlook -- 3 Origins of the ``Comprehensive Strategic Partnership�� -- 4 The Military Dimension -- 4.1 Parallelism Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan -- 4.2 The Near and Middle East -- 4.3 Venezuela -- 5 The Economic Dimension -- 6 The Systemic Dimension -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- Imperialist Master, Comrade in Arms, Foe, Partner, and Now Ally? China�s Changing Views of Russia -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Russian ``Imperialism�� -- 3 From ``Comrade in Arms�� to the Sino-Soviet Split -- 4 From Sino-Russian Border Clashes to Sino-US Rapprochement -- 5 ``Strategic Partner�� in a Unipolar World -- 6 Sino-Russian Partnership in the Era of Sino-US Rivalry -- 6.1 Balance of Power Politics -- 6.2 Economic Cooperation -- 6.3 State-Society and People-to-People Relations -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- Domestic Politics: A Forgotten Factor in the Russian-Chinese Relationship -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Regime Survival: Domestic Structural Conditions -- 3 Domestic Actors: The Case of the Russian Federation -- 3.1 Beneficiaries -- 3.2 Caught In-Betweens -- 3.3 Converts -- 4 Domestic Political Obstacles -- 5 Conclusions -- References -- Part II: The Military Dimension of Sino-Russian Cooperation: Case Studies -- Russian-Chinese Military-Technological Cooperation and the Ukrainian Factor -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Soviet Arms-Industrial Support for China.

2.1 A Brief Period of Western Arms Transfers During the 1980s -- 2.2 The Impact of the 1989 Arms Embargo Against China -- 3 Post-Soviet Russia�s Interest in Delivering Arms Technologies to China -- 3.1 A Dip in Russian-Chinese Arms Trade During 2005-2012 -- 4 The Impact of Ukrainian Arms Transfers to China Before 2014 -- 5 Chinese-Ukrainian Defense Cooperation Since 2014 -- 6 A Revival of Russian-Chinese Defense-Industrial Relations After 2014 -- 7 The Outlook for Further Russian-Chinese Defense-Industrial Cooperation -- References -- Russia-China Naval Partnership and Its Significance -- 1 From Laying the Foundations of the PLA Navy to Breaking Up -- 2 Closing the Technological Gap with Russia�s Help -- 3 Intellectual Property Issues -- 4 Simulating an Alliance -- 5 Shared Security Interests and Perceptions of Inferiority -- 6 Seeking Political and Strategic Benefits -- 7 Operational Benefits -- 8 Lasting Distrust -- 9 Conclusions -- References -- Chinese and Russian Military Modernization and the Fourth Industrial Revolution -- 1 Introduction -- 2 China: Exploiting the 4IR Through Military-Civil Fusion -- 2.1 Chinese Military Modernization: Mechanization and Informatization -- 2.2 Intelligentized Warfare and Artificial Intelligence -- 2.3 Intelligentized Warfare and Military-Civil Fusion -- 3 Russia: Weaponizing Artificial Intelligence -- 3.1 The Soviet Era: The Military-Technical Revolution (MTR) -- 3.2 4IR Exploitation Under Putin -- 3.3 Exploiting the 4IR -- 4 Chinese and Russian Prospects for Exploiting the 4IR for Military Modernization -- 5 Prospects for Sino-Russian Cooperation in 4IR Technologies -- References -- China-Russia Cooperation in Nuclear Deterrence -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Nuclear Weapons and Great Power Competition -- 3 Evolution of Moscow-Beijing Nuclear Relations -- 4 Nuclear Issues from Gorbachev to the Ukraine Crisis.

4.1 Establishing the New Relationship -- 4.2 Joint Opposition to US Ballistic Missile Defense -- 4.3 Areas of Discord -- 5 Nuclear Cooperation Since the Ukraine Crisis -- 5.1 Continued Opposition to US Missile Defense -- 5.2 Coordination in Northeast Asia -- 5.3 Missile Defense and Early Warning -- 5.4 Post-INF Cooperation -- 5.5 Multilateral Arms Control -- 6 Prospects for Cooperation in Nuclear Deterrence -- References -- Part III: Spatial and Multilateral Aspects of Sino-Russian Cooperation: Case Studies -- Digital Authoritarianism and Technological Cooperation in Sino-Russian Relations: Common Goals and Diverging Standpoints -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Digital Surveillance and Censorship in China and Russia -- 3 Dilemmas for Western Tech Companies -- 4 Technology, Decoupling and Chinese and Russian Investment Strategies -- 5 Sino-Russian Cooperation and Its Limits -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- Sino-Russian Scientific Cooperation in the Arctic: From Deep Sea to Deep Space -- 1 Discourse Power and People-to-People Diplomacy -- 2 Russian Scientific Cooperation with Chinese Defence Universities -- 2.1 Collaboration in Undersea Surveillance and Hydroacoustics -- 2.2 Jointly Building an Underwater Great Wall -- 2.3 Space Cooperation and Implications for Security -- 2.4 Military-Civil Fusion in Arctic Underwater Acoustics -- 3 Conclusion -- References -- Partnership Without Substance: Sino-Russian Relations in Central and Eastern Europe -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Strategic Context -- 2.1 The CEE Region in Russian and Chinese Foreign Policy -- 3 The Awkward Squad: Serbia, Hungary, Belarus, and Ukraine -- 4 17+1 = Trouble. The Rise and Fall of China-Led Multilateralism -- 5 The Scorecard -- 5.1 Looking Ahead -- References -- Cooperation Between Russia and China in Multilateral Organizations: A Tactical or a Strategic Alliance? -- 1 Introduction.

2 Priorities, Commonalities and Differences -- 2.1 The Priorities of Russia and China in Geneva-Based Forums -- 2.2 Challenging the Narrative -- 2.3 Strategic Personnel Policy -- 3 Cooperation of Russia and China in Geneva-A Tactical or a Strategic Alliance? -- 3.1 Dismiss Criticism of Domestic and Foreign Policies -- 3.2 Shaping a Different Narrative-Through Policies and Personnel -- 3.3 Defensive Stance on Reform-A State-Centric Vision of Multilateralism -- 3.4 Russia and China as Beacons of the Autocratic Alliance in Multilateral Bodies -- 4 Options for the West -- 4.1 Stronger Engagement in Multilateral Forums -- 4.2 A More Strategic Personnel Policy -- 4.3 Building Alliances -- 4.4 Leading by Example -- References -- Part IV: The Way Forward: How Could the West Cope with Russia and China? -- What a Military Alliance Between Russia and China Would Mean for NATO -- 1 Introduction -- 2 What an Emerging Military Alliance Between Russia and China Could Look Like -- 2.1 Examples from History and the Lessons the West Can Learn from Them -- 2.2 Implications and Consequences of a ``Model B�� Alliance-Dangerous and Not Unlikely -- 2.3 A ``Nightmare Scenario�� Based on ``Model B��: War Between China and the USA in the Indo-Pacific Creates an Opportunity fo... -- 3 The Impact of a Russian-Chinese De Facto Alliance on Europe�s Security -- 3.1 Consequences of a Russian-Chinese Military Alliance for Peacetime Relationships -- 3.2 Consequences of a Russian-Chinese Military Alliance for International Crisis Management -- 3.3 Consequences of a Russian-Chinese Military Alliance for Deterrence and Defense in Crisis and Conflict -- 3.3.1 Political Aspects -- 3.3.2 Military-Operational Aspects -- 3.4 The Possible Impact on Russia�s Risk Calculus -- 3.5 The Impact on NATO�s Risk Calculus and Most Vulnerable Point -- 3.6 Consequences for NATO�s Defense Posture.

4 Concluding Recommendations -- References -- Options for Dealing with Russia and China: A US Perspective -- 1 The Problem Set -- 2 The Key Assumptions -- 3 Building a Workable Strategy -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- The Way Forward: How Should Europe Deal with Russia and China? -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Relevance of History -- 3 Can the Russian-Chinese Alliance be Broken? -- 4 What Kinds of War Contingencies Do we Have to Reckon with in the Event that the Russian-Chinese Axis Persists? -- 5 What Is the Role of `Europe�? -- 5.1 Acknowledging the Existence and Relevance of a Russian Military Threat -- 5.2 Rethinking: What Might be the Worst Case? -- 5.3 Rethinking Europe�s Relationship with China -- 6 Conclusions -- References -- Conclusion: Connecting the Dots and Defining the Challenge -- 1 Structural Incentives for Further Russian-Chinese Cooperation -- 2 Evidence Pointing to Differences and Lack of Cooperation: An Uneven Picture -- 3 Defining the Challenge to Europe, NATO and the US -- 4 Areas for Future Research -- References -- Select Bibliography.

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